Trends in Infant Formula Sales in China 2025 & How to Stay Competitive

China’s Infant Formula market has long been one of the most dynamic and demanding in the world, as well as being the largest at 36% of the total global market. In 2025, it’s moving into a new phase, where consumer expectations, government oversight, and local competition are converging to reshape the playing field entirely. Depending on your brand exposure to the market, the trends in infant formula sales in China may drive your entire company strategy.

If you’re a foreign brand aiming to grow, or even hold your ground, here’s what some of the current trends really mean for your China strategy, at a minimum.

Table of Contents

Premiumisation and Science-Led Innovation Are Now the Entry Ticket – a Hygiene Factor so to speak

Premium products aren’t optional anymore: they’re the bare minimum requirement, with a large portion of the market value growth coming from the ultra-premium price category (where tins typically cost upwards of 400RMB for 800 or 900g). The premium segment accounted for 37% of the market in 2024, and over 83% of parents said in a 2024 survey, they’re willing to pay more for clean-label, certified-quality formulas. But this willingness to pay is conditional on products having real scientific backing.

In the past, “packaging claims” in China were not well regulated, however since almost a decade now things have been much stricter (although if you’ve worked in China for any length of time you’ll know that often “where there’s a will there’s a way” is the motto). Packaging these days is way “cleaner” than most other global markets with regulations more restrictive than most “western” brands are used to at home.

What that looks like in practice:

Ingredients like Human Milk Oligosaccharides (HMOs) and A2 protein are increasingly expected, not novel. Both Enfamil and Illuma brands are highlighting their use of HMOs on their packaging and there are more brands who have supplemented products in the pipeline.
Health-conscious middle-class parents, particularly those born after 1995, are asking for formulas that support the microbiome (ie for babies born by C-section), cognitive development, and allergy prevention.
Brands like Aptamil NEO 3 and Illuma HMO lead with their immunity benefit claims, while domestic powerhouse Yili’s Pro-Kido demonstrates outcomes like a 64% reduction in bronchitis cases.
goat milk formula is stronger than ever in the “allergy space” making up around 20% of market value with Yili’s Kabrita being the dominant brand

Gen-Z parents (45% of buyers now) are immersed in a culture of “Scientific Feeding.” They want peer-reviewed evidence, personalised advice, and may soon expect AI-powered nutrition recommendations. You should also remember that Chinese mothers-to-be have for many years now carried out extensive research online prior to selecting a brand to feed their child, and that is one of the defining factors for infant formula sales in China.

The market is shifting from volume to value. Brands winning in 2025 don’t sell formula—they sell scientifically assured futures.
Kantar Infant Nutrition

✅ Implication: Your brand needs to shift from selling products to offering scientifically assured futures (that obviously comply with all the claims regulations). R&D and transparent communication must be at the heart of your value proposition.

That’s traditionally been a major part of larger brands’ marketing communications (eg Nestle or Enfamil), however for smaller and medium sized competitors less of a focus. Those brands have tended in the past to have a couple of scientific studies to pin their formula marketing on, but not necessarily a selection of messaging.

This increasing focus on scientific based messaging obviously also puts pressure onto smaller brands who simply don’t have the budgets to finance multiple scientific studies on their products (these are also not something you can whip up overnight either so it requires both cash and a long term approach). In most cases, in practical terms, it means making the most of the materials/studies that you have and “stretching” that across as many pieces of content as possible.

Navigating Regulation Isn’t Just About Compliance.

Since China’s new national standards came into effect in 2023, the market has entered an even more controlled, high-barrier phase where compliance has become a competitive lever. You have to comply with GB7718-2025…

Stage 1 and 2 formulas with added sugar are now banned, and new nutrient threshold rules have increased formulation complexity, impacting infant formula sales in China.

Compliance costs are up by 30%, squeezing out under-resourced players and concentrating market share in the hands of brands that got ahead of the changes.

Foreign brands like Aptamil (13% market share) and a2 Milk (6.4%) have grown by proactively reformulating and leaning into this compliance-driven shakeout.

Some local players took massive hits to their sales if they failed to reformulate within the specified timeframes. eg Feihe (17.5% market share) who had a 10% dip in sales in the first half of 2025 and almost a 50% crash in profits. On the other hand, many less well resourced smaller foreign brands completely exited the imported Chinese label product part of the market as they simply were unable to comply (or their owners felt it wasn’t worth the effort)

✅ Implication: Compliance can be a growth opportunity IF you’re agile, transparent, and use it to reinforce your credibility. Treat regulation as a competitive moat, not a hurdle.

That’s easily said, but far harder to actually implement though with the reformulation, and laboratory testing or scientific study times making registration (& even re-registration) hard work for most brands.

Feihe organic infant formula -a key player in infant formula sales in china — Feihe brand is presently (August 2025) market leader

Omnichannel Isn’t Just a Buzzword, but a Survival Strategy

China’s digital and physical retail ecosystem is both fragmented and at the same time deeply interconnected. To succeed, brands must deliver a consistent yet localised presence across platforms.

Online sales now make up 40% of the market, but require tailored strategies:

Tmall & JD.com: Ideal for premium and functional launches.
Douyin & Xiaohongshu: The frontlines of KOC (Key Opinion Consumer) trust-building and mum-focused storytelling.

Offline still matters though. Around 60% of sales come from specialised mom & baby stores (this varies by region), which now double as brand experience centres, and which also have their own online flagship stores.

75% of urban parents scan blockchain-backed QR codes for traceability before buying. If you’re not offering this, you’re behind. Is it an extra logistical, administrative and cost factor? Yes. But do it anyway…& integrate it into your CRM for marketing benefits, above and beyond building trust.

Successful foreign brands master:

Weibo for brand visibility and e-commerce hooks,
WeChat for parental education and community engagement,
Xiaohongshu to connect with micro-influencers and everyday mums.

✅ Implication: Your omnichannel strategy needs to be nuanced and locally grounded. Build your digital infrastructure as if you’re a Chinese brand, because that’s who you’re competing with.

Don’t forget that China is also much larger than simply the tier 1 and 2 cities that you may be familiar with. Much of the growth in the coming years will be from tiers 3 & 4 where purchasing power is still growing. Increasingly you will need to think about localising your product offerings and marketing WITHIN China and for certain levels of urbanisation.

Cross Border E-Commerce as the Competitive Edge for Infant Formula Sales in China?

I’ve only been talking about the “domestic” part of China’s infant formula market up until now – that means products formally imported & registered for sale with a Chinese language label in local retail. However, Chinese language label sales of infant formula are stagnating a bit, whilst “English language labels” (but also German, Dutch, French…) are increasing.

That gives foreign brands the opportunity to showcase their products in those cross border (or also O2O channels) and attract that portion of parents who prefer the “foreign original”.

If you’re going to use this strategy though, you need to be careful with your pricing and branding policies so as not to cannibalise your own Chinese label sales. Those activities need to be carefully coordinated.

Local Competition Is Relentless – So Must Be Your Value Story

Domestic players are fighting fiercely and often receiving government help to drive their growth. For example there are now payments to each family nationally of RMB10800/year for each child under 3 and in some regions like Hohhot in Inner Mongolia, the local government is also making a payment to families in an attempt to stabilise (or better still stimulate) the birth rate.

Feihe decided to jump on the bandwagon here and subsidise their own sales by rolling out a RMB 1.2 billion maternity subsidy scheme (1500 RMB/child or around 6 cans), forcing competitors to rethink their pricing models and eating into their profits.

Yili has grown to 17.3% market share, pushing hard into both premium and functional territory.

Local brands often undercut foreign imports by up to 30%, but price alone doesn’t win the war for parental loyalty. Parents are still wary due to past scandals (& the recent Gansu kindergarten issue, reminds them once again of the need for vigilance) and remain focused on quality, trust, and nutritional value.

Brands like Feihe and FrieslandCampina are diversifying beyond core IMF into adult and personalised nutrition, creating new value streams and future-proofing their portfolios in the face of long term low birth rates and aging population numbers.

✅ Implication: Competing on price is a race to the bottom (see also my thoughts above on cross-border sales channels where it’s easy to feel pressured). Instead, leverage your scientific credentials, quality guarantees, and international reputation & heritage. And explore adjacent segments to spread risk and defend margins. eg historically the growing up milk category in China (& most of the rest of Asia) has made up 50% of the total market due to less regulation of formulation and marketing.

Even Though A Modest Recovery Is Underway, It Won’t Carry You Alone

In 2024, China saw 520,000 more births, a reversal after seven years of decline. This signals a possible 2–3 year recovery cycle, and with it, a glimmer of hope for growth. On the other hand, last year was a dragon year, when traditionally birth rates have spiked.

Still, overcapacity and homogeneous product offerings remain challenges. This really hit Feihe hard as they did a massive stockbuild to cover them during the regulatory changes.

The brands that will win during this slow rebound aren’t those that wait for the tide to rise – they’re the ones that double down on value creation, differentiation, and innovation.

✅ Implication: Align with the broader consumption upgrade trend. Use this window to reposition for value, not volume. Functional ingredients are likely to continue to drive premiumisation so focusing on having “the purest” or “most organic” products is unlikely to drive growth –> “breast is best” has to be the gold standard you strive to get closer to, whilst at the same time monitoring closely where the cutting edge of relevant scientific studies is going.

It’s Not Just About Formula

To thrive in China’s 2025 IMF market, foreign brands must operate with a new mindset. This is no longer a market where “foreign = better” is enough. Those halcyon days are really long gone. It’s a market where only those who adapt intelligently, innovate constantly, and communicate transparently will survive. You need to bring your brand values from home and adopt the implementation that suits Chinese consumers best.

Whatever the challenges of China’s infant formula market, there is really only one China. It might be the most taxing market for you to work in, but it also offers potentially higher returns. The market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7% taking the total market value to an estimated $33.4 billion by 2033.

Of course, only you as a brand can decide whether the investment in nerves, time, and resources are worth it for your brand, but you also need to consider that you can’t succeed by just dipping your toes in the water in China – you have to jump in fully.

And remember, you’re never just selling formula. (This is true in all markets, but especially so in China with the legacy of the one-child policy and 2008 melamine scandal).

You’re selling peace of mind for parents, scientifically supported futures, and trust. That’s something that takes time to build (but can be lost in the blink of an eye).

And that’s a far more complex, but rewarding, value proposition.

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